2024. 6. 20. 21:12ㆍ카테고리 없음
Minutes closing in U.S
#EuropeanRateCut #NVIDIAVSApple #EmploymentIndicator #Goldilocks
NASDAQ 17,173(-0.09%)
10-year U.S. bond interest rate 4.292% (+0.26%)
USD Index 104.102p (-0.19%) NDF 1,365 KRW (-1 KRW)
The Nasdaq Composite Index, which rose 1.96% on the 6th and surpassed the 17,000 mark, closed weakly today. Technology stocks, which surged on the 6th, fell slightly, showing signs of rest ahead of the announcement of employment indicators. Nvidia and Apple's market capitalization reversed at one point on the 6th. With Nvidia falling 1% today, Apple again became the second-largest market capitalization, but the gap between the two is only 0.7%. Nvidia achieved $3 trillion in market capitalization for the third time, and the combined market capitalization of Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, the top three companies in the U.S., was equivalent to China's total market capitalization. In a way, the dollar hegemony is expected to continue not only because of the U.S. military power but also because of this corporate competitiveness.
The ECB has implemented a 25-bp rate cut. However, the euro has rather strengthened as it has been seen as a hawkish cut. There have been comments that they could change their rate policy if they cut rates but prices rise again, and that they would rely on data to decide on their policies. The ECB has moved first, so the U.S. Fed's decision seems imminent.
The stock price soared as the ISM service PMI recorded a surprise of 53.8 on the 6th. The good economy is positive news for the stock market. However, monetary policy is different. If the economy is too hot, the timing of the rate cut could be far away. Employment indicators released tonight will play an important role in the FOMC's interest rate decision in June or September. ADP private employment announced on the 6th increased by 1.52 million people, below expectations of 17.5 million. If non-agricultural employment slows down, there could be a better environment for the stock market.
If the service industry economy boomed, employment slowed, and interest rates were lowered, the Goldilocks environment could continue. The 10-year U.S. long-term interest rate has fallen back below 4.3%. Those who were excited that there might not be a rate cut this year have disappeared. I think most things are eventually going into place.
I hope today's market reflects only the rise of the U.S. market on the 6th.
I hope you have a great Friday.